Into the Future...
Week 3, Month 9
Be afraid, be very afraid.
The old Chinese curse 'may you live in interesting times' is very much
at work these days, despite the vast majority of us not knowing it. Now as humanity roars into the 21st Century a
vast number of technologies are slowly coming together that will revolutionize
the world.
This may not actually be a good thing for all of us. History is littered with times where
revolutionary advances in technology have brought hardship and economic
strife. Manufacturing robots displace
jobs, e-mail replaces letters, and iTunes drives Record Labels into the ground.
Those changes are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes
to what's coming as not only are there individual technologies on the way that
will change how we live, but technologies that build upon each other in
fascinating ways. Here are just some
examples of what you can expect in the future.
1. 3D Printing and
the Erosion of Traditional Manufacturing
The 3D Printer is something of a wonder for the inner tech
guru. A device that prints 3D objects by
layering material through separate passes.
It sounds like something that is a 'niche' item, something that crowds
of techie do it yourself people would play with in their spare time. And it is that, but it's also something that
could well create a dramatic shift in the way people manufacture things in this
country.
Most 3D printer creations are simple plastic items like
statues, paper weights, and ice scrapers, but... They can build so much
more. Just over a week ago the third 3D
printed firearm was tested, and it's only a matter of time before other items
begin to be made that way. If the
printer can be made easy to use, the device has the promise of totally
revolutionizing the manufacture of practically everything.
Imagine downloading a schematic from online, plugging it
into a 3D printer and an hour later installing a brand new stereo system, computer,
or iPad hot from the press. That is the
ultimate promise of the technology.
Such printers could well spell the doom of thousands of
businesses that make everything from model kits and toys to coffee makers. The only restriction my mind can come up with
is that it's not quite capable of making a hot cup of Earl Grey on command, yet.
Ultimately the shift will start out small with people just
printing trinkets and toys, but when you consider that the skin of the F-22
fighter is layered on in a process similar to this, you realize that ultimately
it may be possible for an industrial sized printer to make cars, planes, and
other large items. It's likely they
would still require some sort of assembly, but it wouldn't be nearly at the
same level as what is currently done around the country.
In such an economy the loss of copyrighted blueprints could
be a grave blow as a competitor could produce a copy just by plugging in the blueprints
to their printer. The sale of plans is
likely to be the primary source of income for what were the auto manufacturers
if they continue to exist as we know them.
2. On Demand Books
and the End of the Publishing Houses
Printers have come a long way. We've got 3D versions and laserjets that spit
out thousands of pages a minute. Now,
Google partnered with On Demand Books to produce a printer that can print a
300-page paperback book in fifteen minutes.
Considering each is about the size of a normal Xerox that can collate
and that it's only a matter of time before e-book formats will become cracked
by hackers or released to the public, any book you own as an e-book has the
potential to become a paperback if you want it.
Now consider the royalty rates offered by e-book self
publishing through Kindle Direct Publishing (70% of list price compared to
around 20% for traditional publishers), the creative control remaining
exclusively with the writer, and the fact that there is a way to turn that
e-book into a paperback?
Traditional publishing houses are doomed if they continue to
function as they have. Many authors
already make more through self e-book publishing now than they did selling
through the publishing houses. If you
consider it's only a matter of time until someone makes a printer that can make
hardbacks it's clear that publishing houses as we know them are going to go the
way of the dodo.
As an aside, the format war for e-books seems to have
already ended in the United States with Kindle being the clear winner, at least
at present. Other readers continue to
hang on, but so long as the kindle app has been available for iPad, it's been
pretty much over. Amazon owns the market
for books now with only Barnes and Noble as a competitor, it's no wonder they
won the format war.
3. Carbon Composites
and the End of Steel
Carbon, element number 6, is one of the single most common
elements in the universe and the building block of almost all life on Earth
(there are exceptions in the depths of the sea). Carbon is also one of the single most useful
elements for scientists as compounds made from carbon have shown the capacity
to be some of the single strongest materials known to man.
The rise of carbon fiber is well documented. Already it is
in planes, cars, ships, and even toilet seats.
The stuff is as strong as steel and only a fraction of the weight. Then consider how the stuff is made involves
layering threads in a process akin to 3D printing and you realize... this stuff
is going to be everywhere that steel is today.
The holy grail of carbon is carbon-nanotubes a lattice of
carbon molecules that are shaped into a cable.
The stuff has the capacity to dwarf the strength of steel and
alloys. While currently our ability to
produce these wonders is limited, it's only a matter of time before we crack
the process... and then we start doing crazy things like building space
elevators.
4. Cybernetics and
Neural Interface Technology
It's not common knowledge, but cyborgs are already
here. We've had wounded soldiers being
fitted with replacement limbs for ages, but now we’ve begun to link those limbs
to the nerves of the patient. Already
there have been demonstrations of cybernetic eyes used to treat blindness,
remote linking of a robot arm through a microchip implant, and other. In addition, neural interfaces have been
demonstrated for over twenty years now and a really basic version exists in a
Star Wars toy.
These two technologies are closely tied together thanks to
how they work. They both are about
directly the linking the human mind, either through invasive techniques like
surgery or scanning mental output. A
Neural Interface is how you connect a cybernetic limb to brain after all. This combined with continuing advancements in
the fields of computer programming, networking, and so forth are pushing us
toward a world much like what you see in Ghost in the Shell. This is both frightening and exciting, but
the repercussions are likely to be extremely long lasting.
5. Hydroponics and
Industrial Farming
They can make hamburgers in a test tube now, did you
know? Yeah, I heard... and this
technology is essentially in its infancy at the moment it likely will be a big
part of the economy by the time I retire... if I retire. Writing is one of those permanent
occupations, anyway...
Why is this a big deal? Well, let me put it to you this
way. Raising cattle, chicken, and pig
farming is a shockingly land and resource intensive process with a number of
nasty byproducts. You need the land to
raise the feed you give the animals, the land for the animals to live, and so
forth. Land is expensive, and the amount
of arable land is finite and the amount of land available for use in food
production is shrinking thanks to urban sprawl and other factors. If the cost of making bacon turns out to be
cheaper in what amounts to a biological factory then raised normally, the stuff
made in a lab is likely to be purchased and consumed.
I won't say that traditional farming is doomed since we've
got organic farming for those that want it, but it's likely to become a niche
market once the bugs are worked out of growing hamburgers and sausage in an
industrial process, well McDonalds will certainly use it for making Big Macs if
it's cheaper.
6. Warfare Goes
Robotic and Semi-Autonomous
Recently the Defense Department began discussing the
development of autonomous combat drones.
Yes, completely computer controlled planes armed with bombs and missiles
are being worked on. Now, I'll probably
have to explain how this is likely to work and alleviate the fears of a number
of people that are probably going: "They'll kill us all!"
I have a couple general predictions about this
development. First off, we're likely to
see this autonomous ability appear first in air-to-air fighter drones, thanks
to the fact that air-to-air combat has a number of very clear, understandable,
and easily programmed rules for both engaging targets and selecting targets. Keeping a drone from shooting down a friendly
or a civilian aircraft is pretty simple since most combat aircraft and almost
all civilian aircraft carry transponders.
So the drone sees a plane, the first thing it asks itself
will be, "Does it have a transponder that's registered as friendly or
civilian?"
If no, it will move to engage, but... First it will ask for
permission to engage and then the controller will have the choice as to whether
to declare the drone "weapons free" or refuse to let the drone engage. The authorization to engage will likely
require confirmation from a second controller.
Then the drone is allowed to engage the target or targets.
Bombers will likely have a similar level of programming, but
will also have to be fed coordinates from the ground for targets. We've seen a number of errors where foot
soldiers have given the wrong coordinates or even their own coordinates for the
target's location (resulting in some pretty nasty friendly fire incidents).
Eventually this system could be applied to almost any combat
system, be it tanks, artillery, or even robot infantry. Despite all that there will almost certainly
be human commanders and controllers behind them. A squad of robotic infantry could be
commanded by two humans for example.
All of this will likely make war even more deadly and
efficient. Studies show that something
like 98% of soldiers are either incapable of aiming to kill another human being
with a personal weapon, or intentionally miss.
As a result, 98% of all casualties are inflicted by less than 2% of
combatants. When robots take over the
role of rifleman, there will be no human psychological impulse to miss the
target. They will aim to kill, just like
their programmed to do.
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