Friday Food For Thought #19

The Cold War v2.0

Episode #19

For the last couple weeks one of the things that have been taking up a great deal of my attention has been the growing crisis in the Ukraine.  One of the things that have struck me is that most people simply don't get what's happening.  They don't understand it, so after going through masses of news articles and posts from bloggers actually in the Ukraine and Russian Federation.  So, think of this post as a compilation of everything that's happened and an attempt to explain the actions of those involved.

So, let’s get started.

How it Began – the Maidan Protests

The protests that ultimately toppled the government of the Ukraine began on November 21^st 2013.  It began as a response to then President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision to reject a trade deal with the European Union in favor of a 15 billion dollar loan from Russia.  The protests were fueled in large part by economic stagnation, obvious government corruption, and perceptions that Ukrainian integration into the European Union would make their situation better.

The size of the protests rapidly increased to over a hundred thousand people in Maidan Square in Kiev.  Then on November 30th, Yanukovych unleashed riot police on the crowd.

Early in December, Kiev was rocked by a series of riots in response to the attack on the protests of November 30th.  A number of the opposition parties throughout Ukraine began to build Headquarters of National Resistance throughout the countryside.

On January 16th, the Parliament of Ukraine passed a series of Anti-Protest Laws in Ukraine designed to force the protesters to disperse and giving more authority to President Yanukovych to suppress the protesters.  Throughout this time, the official line of the Party of Regions (which was led by Yanukovych) was that the protesters were made up of foreign agents, fascists, and anti-semites.  A line which has since been repeated by the Russian media and Pro-Russian television stations in the Ukraine (especially the Crimea).

These actions caused the protests to further radicalize as both the riot police and protestors began to use more and more force in clashes.  Thousands of Ukrainian protestors held Maidan Square and began to fortify the location, constructing massive barricades assembling home-made riot shields, and molotov cocktails.  They tore cobblestones up from the streets and hurled them at the riot police as they continued to fight to control the square.

The police used water cannons, molotov cocktails of their own, tear gas, flash bangs (often wrapped with nails and other improvised materials to turn them into grenades), and there are reports that even at this stage there was unauthorized use of shotguns.  In addition to the normal police forces, the Ukrainian government deployed the Berkut (Golden Eagles) which in many ways were the evolution of the KGB inside the Ukraine after the breakup of the Soviet Union.

As the conflict drug on, the protestors demands increased as they were radicalized by the oppression of the government, moving from demands that Yanukovych accept the EU trade deal to demands for government reform, the removal of the anti-protest laws, and President Yanukovych's removal.

Throughout this stage of the Crisis, Yanukovych was in communication with the Russian President, Vladimir Putin.  Yanukovych's response to the protests continued to escalate.  Pro-Russian and Pro-Yanukovych forces began to take more and more extreme actions.  They raided Red Cross aid centers and hid a bomb in a package labeled as medicine, destined for the activists.  Finally, on February 18th, the protests exploded into violent revolution.

The Ukrainian Revolution of 2014

On February 18th, Yanukovych began a dramatic escalation and crackdown in an attempt to end the protests.  Public transportation in Kiev was frozen and a de facto imposition of a state of emergency put in place.  Berkut troops and riot police were deployed in mass, and an attempt to break through the barricades using a couple BTR armored personnel carriers on Febuary 19th failed.  In addition around 30 protestors and police died in the clashes as the first reports of widespread use of firearms began to crop up.

Then on February 20th the Berkut Police opened fire on the protestors, over seventy people died as a result.  This use of force caused what remained of Yanukovych's credibility to evaporate.  It was clear to many that Yanukovych was exercising power like a dictator.  Across the globe people were appalled by the events in the square.  The next day, Yanukovych was forced to sign a deal to bring about early elections and rolled back the anti-protest laws.

Yanukovych fled to Moscow soon afterward, the Berkut police that had been fighting the protestors fled as well, with many of them running to the Crimea.  The Ukrainian Parliament declared the post of president vacant (since he'd fled to Moscow) and selected Oleksandr Turchynov to the post of acting president.  Yanukovych has claimed that he's still the president of the Ukraine and the actions of the parliament were illegal (technically they were, but since when has that stopped a popular revolution).

Seems pretty straightforward, a popular protest turned into a revolution.  Brace yourself, things are about to take a turn toward the surreal.

The Russian Response

AKA… how to invade a country without invading a country.

The Russian Federation gave safe haven to Viktor Yanukovych and refused to recognize the new leadership of Ukraine as legitimate.  Thanks in part due to Russia portraying the Euromaidan protesters as fascists and Nazis (as an aside, Russians seems to use the word fascist in politics in much the same way Americans use the word communists) organized by Western subversives, many of the ethnic Russians living in the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine feared that they would be targeted for their ethnicity.  While no such discrimination or attacks have taken place, fear of such attacks remains alive thanks to continued misinformation from Russia and the Ukrainian parliament attempting to remove Russian as one of Ukraine's two official languages.

Russian diplomats refuse event to speak with their Ukrainian fellows.

In addition the Ukrainian authorities ordered the disbanding of the Berkut special police, many of whom have fled to the Crimea where the new Pro-Russian mayor of Sevastapol has reformed the Berkut.  It's likely many of those former members have also joined the various 'Russian Self-Defense' groups that have propped up throughout the Crimea.

Using this as motivation, the Russian Federation began flying in troops to Sevastapol in the Crimea.  The port is home to the Russian Black Sea Fleet and Russia has leased the port since the dissolution of the Soviet Union.  On February 27th, armed men (equipped as Russian Special Forces) stormed the Crimean Parliament.  Since then a number of votes have been supposedly passed by the parliament, including one making the leader of the Crimea a man whose party received less than 4% of the votes in the last Crimean Parliamentary election.  Multiple members of the Crimean Parliament have reported being threatened, or not voting for the various measures that have been put in place.

Armed men wearing masks and uniforms without insignia have surrounded a number of Ukrainian military bases around the Crimea.  Their professional uniforms, equipment, and bearing are consistent with soldiers of the Russian Federation.  In addition to ground troop movements the Russian Black Sea Fleet has launched a number of ships, and scuttled three decommissioned ships to blockade Ukrainian ships in their harbors.  One of the ships scuttled was the Ochakov, a Kara-class Missile Crusier.

Russian Provocations and Ukrainian Restraint

Since February 27th, the Russian Forces on the Crimea have continually harassed Ukrainian units in their bases.  For example: Belbek Airbase, a Ukrainian airfield near Sevastapol has been occupied by Russian soldiers.  In a show of extreme restraint on the part of the Ukrainians, the base staff marched on Russian positions unarmed while the Russians fired warning shots into the air and managed to negotiate back access to the base.  At another base the Russians smashed through the gate with a truck and hurled flash-bangs, but the Ukrainians refused to open fire.  Elsewhere Russian or Pro-Russian forces have opened fire on border patrol aircraft, fired warning shots at international advisors, and beaten Pro-Ukrainian protesters in Eastern Ukraine and the Crimea.

It wasn't until today, March 14th, that these provocations seemed to incite the Ukrainians to some resistance, when a dueling set of protests in Donetsk clashed, resulting in the death of one Pro-Russian protester.  Overall it has been the Pro-Russian protesters that have been more violent throughout Eastern Ukraine, as footage of one Pro-Ukrainian rally in the Crimea revealed an angry crowd beating those that showed their support to Kiev.

The Crimean Referendum

On March 16th, the Crimea is supposed to have a referendum on requesting annexation by the Russian Federation.  While in normal circumstances I would see this referendum going down in defeat, a look at the ballot and how the voting is going to work makes it clear that no-matter what the results of the vote will be a request for Russian Annexation.  Why? There is no way to vote no on the ballot.

The ballot has two questions and two check boxes.  The first question asks if you wished to vote for Crimea being annexed by the Russian Federation, if yes you check the box.  The second question asks if you wish for the Crimea parliament to revert to an earlier constitution which would give them the authority to ask for annexation without a referendum, which they asked for already... hence the referendum.  A ballot that leaves both boxes empty will not be counted, nor will a ballot that has both boxes checked.  In short, the Crimean population is not going to be able to say no.

Considering only 58% of the Crimean population is ethnically Russian, and there is no guarantee the ethnically Russian would vote to be part of Russia, any legitimate referendum could easily fail.  The Crimean populace, historically, would much rather be independent of both Kiev and Moscow, unfortunately they've not been given that choice.

What Does Russia Want?

This is the million dollar question of the Crisis.  What does Moscow want?  If they're hoping to re-install Yanukovych, I think their chances of success are about zero.  Even in the Pro-Russian provinces he's despised.  If they're trying to force Ukraine to bend to their will, I think they'd too be disappointed.

No, there is more going on here, I think.  For one thing, Putin is terrified of seeing a democratic revolution in Moscow.  Many of the very same problems that plague Ukraine have plagued Russia.  A protest or popular uprising is something that Putin has moved to swiftly crush before with mass arrests and force.  I think Russia sees a European aligned Ukraine as a threat, much as how China views a united western Korea as a threat.  They want a buffer and client state between them and NATO.

That is one end result, I don't think we'll get.  However, the crisis and actions Russia is taking in the Crimean make me think that Russia is trying to secure what they see as the most important part of Ukraine for themselves... Sevastapol.  In addition, the actions that Russia is taking against the Ukrainian troops and ships seem to me to be designed to try and convince them to defect to the Pro-Russian government now installed in Crimea.  There have been rumors of demands that Ukrainian ships surrender, and I wonder if another goal for the Russians is to take back the portion of the Black Sea Fleet seceded to Ukraine during the 1990s.